Research library
Independent research on energy, the environment, macro conditions, and financial markets. Explore featured and recent publications below.
QQQ × Inflation Events × Market StructureOctober 7 after-close outlook
September fuel costs drive our call for a decline from the October 7 close into CPI, a rebound around PPI near daily MA60–MA120 support, and a continued bearish view after the bounce.
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AI × Capital Cycles × ValuationComplete research edition · 30 exhibits
A complete, illustrated study of AI revenue, capital spending, supply chains, model economics, chips, memory, valuation, employment, and investment scenarios.
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NQ × YM × Spread ReversalTactical bearish outlook
Three historical pullbacks, spread-reversion and confirmed NQ-short scenarios, and a conditional 5%–7% correction range after the post-hike rally.
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The indexes remain elevated, but Nasdaq new-high breadth, semiconductor and bank leadership, credit spreads, and long-term participation are sending a less confident message.
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NQ × Record-High Context × Trend CheckResearch follow-up
Why we see the selloff after the Nasdaq's record closes as a potential normal pullback, how the July 30 NQ forecast relates, and what would invalidate our view.
Read full reportNQ × Reversal Structure × AI EarningsMarket outlook
Why a June 11-style EMA reclaim, broad semiconductor leadership, cooler core inflation, and earnings-backed AI demand point to a staged recovery toward 30,000.
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YM1 × Reversal Pattern × RatesMarket outlook
Why the August 5 upper-wick rejection and August 6 bearish expansion candle—reinforced by rising oil, bond yields, and broad constituent weakness—point to a one-month pullback.
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Bitcoin × Technical Strategy × LiquidityMarket outlook
Why two months of base-building, repeated defense of the August low, and inferred large-buyer absorption point to $77,500 first— and $81,000 if the initial breakout holds.
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Fed Policy × Inflation × RatesPolicy outlook
Why persistent inflation, an energy-driven price shock, resilient private demand, and a hawkish split inside the FOMC point to a 25-basis-point increase at the September meeting.
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YM × Trend Continuation × Macro PressureResearch follow-up
Why the low-volume rebound does not end the decline—and how YM can roll over immediately or after a time correction into the week of August 31, with 52,100 still in view.
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Crude Oil × Inflation × Fed PolicyMarket outlook
Why choppy Hormuz flows, depleted product inventories, and a global supply deficit point to a staged crude rally from next week—and why $104 should become resistance before a pullback.
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INTC × Double Bottom × Semiconductor CycleMarket outlook
Why two defenses of the mid-$85 area, 25% revenue growth, AI-compute demand, improving execution, and 18A manufacturing momentum support a bullish breakout.
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NVDA × Technical Reversal × MacroMarket outlook
Why an inverted-hammer-style rejection at prior resistance, sticky inflation, resilient employment, and stretched AI expectations favor a tactical pullback.
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Climate × Energy × MarketsNew research
How winter heating demand, natural-gas inventories, hydropower shortfalls, and energy inflation could reshape rates, equities, and commodity markets through early 2027.
Read full reportEnergy × Inflation × MarketsNew research
How oil, diesel, natural gas, and electricity are moving through consumer prices, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, equity valuations, and sector leadership.
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QQQ × Fed Hike × Trend Re-AccelerationPost-hike outlook
Why the completed Fed hike, Nasdaq relative strength, and technology leadership favor a new advance—with 720–723 as the first pivot and a precise post-September 21 risk rule.
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El Niño × Crops × FuturesNew research
Why a very strong 2026–2027 El Niño creates the largest upside asymmetry in sugar, vegetable oils, and corn—and how to trade the regional crop calendar without treating every commodity alike.
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Fed Cycles × S&P 500 × Global CapitalCycle study
What six tightening cycles, three crisis-era cutting cycles, and the U.S.–China performance gap reveal about rates, capital flows, and long-term equity direction.
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