Our view
A retreat from the highs is not yet a broken trend.
We continue to favor an upward path for E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ). The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,244.28 on September 22, its second straight record close, before falling 1.13% to 26,936.04 on September 23. Those figures describe the Composite cash index, not the NQ futures contract: they establish the recent record-high backdrop without claiming an unverified NQ contract high.
After a strong run, profit-taking and a test of the breakout area are ordinary possibilities. We treat the setback as a normal correction while the prior breakout structure holds and buyers regain control. A decisive loss of that structure would require a reassessment.
Our earlier call
We laid out the NQ upside case on July 30.
In “NQ's July 30 Reversal Opens the Road to 30,000”, we argued that the sharp reversal, a potential 10-day EMA reclaim and semiconductor leadership could carry the contract toward 28,800, 29,400 and then 30,000. That report is the dated record of our earlier bullish forecast. Today's view extends the thesis; it does not prove that every intermediate target was reached or that the present decline has ended.
For continuity, compare the active December NQ contract with its own recent swing high, prior breakout area and 10-day EMA. The July report used the September contract. Futures roll and the passage of time make its quoted price levels unsuitable as an automatic stop or current support line.
What changed today
The pressure has identifiable drivers.
| Observation | September 23 evidence | Reading for NQ |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq retreat | Composite −1.13%, after two record closes | One session of selling does not by itself establish a lower-high, lower-low sequence. |
| Rates and energy | Oil rose almost 4%; 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest since 2007. | Higher yields can pressure long-duration technology valuations; watch whether the move persists. |
| Chip leadership | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −1.2%; Nvidia −1.5%. | Leadership weakened today; a durable NQ rebound needs broader participation. |
| Company dispersion | Meta +1%, Alphabet −3.8%, Amazon −2.2%. | Mixed large-cap action favors patience over treating every dip as a buy signal. |
These are observations from the cash market, used as context for an NQ forecast. The claim that this is a routine pullback is our interpretation, not an established market fact.
Decision framework
What would confirm or weaken the call?
- Bullish confirmation: NQ holds its recent breakout zone on the active contract, forms a higher low, and closes back above its short-term moving averages; semiconductors participate in the rebound.
- Near-term warning: repeated weak closes below the breakout zone, with rising yields and weak chip breadth, would make a deeper correction more likely.
- Thesis invalidation: a sustained break below the last meaningful daily higher low on the same active contract, followed by a failed reclaim, would end our claim that this is merely a routine pullback.
- Macro checkpoints: oil, the 10-year Treasury yield and the next Fed repricing could change the risk/reward even if the chart initially stabilizes.
We do not assign an exact NQ support number here without a verified, timestamped price series for the active December contract. A record in the Nasdaq Composite is not interchangeable with a verified record in NQ.
Sources and timing
Reporting and original forecast.
- Reuters, September 22: Nasdaq's second consecutive record close and AI-led advance
- Reuters, September 23: Nasdaq declines as oil and Treasury yields rise
- CME: E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures contract specifications and quotes
- JQTRADING, July 30: NQ's reversal opens the road to 30,000
Published September 23, 2026, using the September 23 U.S. session report. Index figures above refer to the Nasdaq Composite; the market opinion refers to NQ futures. Futures involve leverage and substantial risk. This report is research commentary, not individualized investment advice.