INTC's Double Bottom Opens a Path to $105–$106

The call

The market has tested Intel's floor twice. The next test is the neckline.

Intel closed September 2 at $90.05 after trading as low as $87.50, extending its rebound from the September 1 intraday low of $85.72. That move followed the August 24 low of $85.14 and an intervening rally to $93.70 on August 28. The sequence forms a compact W-shaped base: two lows in the same demand zone, separated by a meaningful rebound.

Evidence 01

The double bottom is visible, but confirmation still matters.

The first low arrived on August 24, when INTC fell to $85.14 but finished at $87.26. Buyers then pushed the shares to an August 28 intraday high of $93.70, establishing the intervening pivot. The second test came on September 1 at $85.72. It undercut the first closing level without decisively breaking the first intraday low, and price recovered to $88.97. September 2 added a higher low and a $90.05 close, evidence that supply was being absorbed rather than simply delayed.

Volume reinforces the interpretation. Turnover reached 96.9 million shares on the first low and 74.0 million on the second, then eased to 61.6 million as price closed higher on September 2. The lower volume on the retest is consistent with diminishing sell pressure. It does not prove accumulation by a particular institution; it is an inference from price and volume behavior.

Evidence 02

$105–$106 is an extension target, not the first checkpoint.

A disciplined reading separates confirmation, the standard objective, and the momentum objective. The double-bottom depth is approximately $8.56: the $93.70 neckline less the $85.14 first low. Adding that depth to the neckline produces a classic measured move near $102.26. A 1.382 extension of the same base reaches about $105.53, directly inside our $105–$106 target.

This structure prevents a bullish opinion from becoming a promise. Below $93.70, the chart is still a base under resistance. Above $93.70, $102 becomes the first objective. Only a breakout with strong volume and healthy semiconductor breadth upgrades $105–$106 from an extension to the primary trade-management zone.

Evidence 03

The earnings recovery gives the chart a fundamental engine.

Intel's second-quarter results marked a material operating inflection. Revenue reached $16.1 billion, up 25% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS was $0.42. Gross margin improved to 40.4% from 27.5%, and operating margin swung to 11.1% from a 24.7% loss. Cash from operations reached $7.0 billion. These are not merely favorable comparisons: they show that higher volume, better yields, and improved cycle times are beginning to convert demand into operating leverage.

The mix also aligns with the strongest parts of the cycle. Data Center and AI revenue rose 59% to $6.3 billion; Intel Products revenue increased 28% to $15.1 billion; and Intel Foundry revenue advanced 31% to $5.8 billion. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $15.8–$16.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $0.38, sustaining a much stronger run-rate than the market had priced during the prior decline.

Industry & catalysts

AI demand, 18A execution, and capacity investment reinforce the re-rating case.

Intel's product roadmap is moving from promise toward production. Intel 18A-P entered risk production, a subset of Core Ultra Series 3 processors moved into high-volume manufacturing on Intel 18A, and the company launched Xeon 6+ as its first server-class product on that node. More than 130 customers were adopting or testing Core Ultra Series 3 for edge AI and robotics, while collaborations with Foxconn, SambaNova, Siemens, Hitachi, and others expanded the addressable market.

The capital plan supports this demand signal. Intel announced a €5 billion expansion of its Leixlip manufacturing campus in July, then proposed a $15 billion common-stock offering on August 10 to fund capital expenditures and working capital. The offering created real dilution and helped drive the August selloff, but it also strengthened the balance sheet for a period when management said customers were signaling sustainable demand driven by unprecedented AI-compute investment. Once the market absorbs the new shares, the same financing can be read as capacity for growth rather than only dilution.

Scenario framework

The bullish view has clear triggers and a hard failure point.

• Confirmation: a daily close above $93.70, preferably with volume above the September 2 level.
• Quality test: the first pullback holds the $92–$94 breakout zone.
• First objective: $102–$103, where the classic double-bottom measurement is complete.
• Primary extension: scale out into $105–$106 rather than assume an unlimited advance.
• Invalidation: a decisive close below $85 or a broad semiconductor reversal accompanied by worsening guidance.

Conclusion

The chart and the cycle are finally pointing in the same direction.

As of September 2, Intel offers a defined bullish asymmetry. Two defenses of the mid-$85 area limit the technical downside, while a $93.70 breakout would complete the W-base. Fundamentals provide the potential fuel: 25% revenue growth, rapidly expanding data- center and foundry sales, improving margins, 18A production, and capacity investment aligned with AI-compute demand. We therefore expect a successful neckline break to carry INTC toward $102 first and, with momentum confirmation, into $105–$106. Below $85, the evidence changes and the thesis should be closed.